Is CO2 injection at Aquistore aseismic? A combined seismological and geomechanical study of early injection operations
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Fluid injection is known to induce seismic events if the injection causes fracturing of the surrounding rock or if resulting pressure changes reactivate pre-existing faults and fractures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) storage projects where CO2 is injected into deep geological formations for permanent containment are one sector where induced seismicity has been observed. The Aquistore storage project in Saskatchewan, Canada began CO2 injection into the basal Cambrian sandstone at ∼3.2 km deep in April 2015 and the site has been extensively monitored for seismicity. Passive seismic monitoring instrumentation includes a small network of broadband seismometers, a continuously recording array of near-surface geophones and temporary deployments of downhole geophones at depths from 2950 m to 3010 m in an observation well. To date no injection-related induced seismicity has been observed. The seismic arrays are functioning as expected and local mine blasts, orientation shots and perforation shots have been detected using standard detection algorithms. Data stacking algorithms have also been tested on short-periods of data. Using synthetic data added to noise models, the estimated minimum detectable event local magnitude is −0.8 for the broadband stations and between −1.6 and −0.6 for the near-surface geophones. Thus far, small volumes of CO2 have been injected at Aquistore (∼140 kt) and injection has generally occurred below the fracture pressure. As a result, predicted pore pressure changes are small and periods without injection have allowed relaxation of the pressure plume. Geomechanical modelling suggests insignificant effective stress changes at an identified fault near the Aquistore injection well. It is therefore not surprising that no induced seismicity has been detected. With further injection, continued seismic monitoring is essential to provide warning of any fault reactivation and thus any potential increase in seismic risk or CO2 leakage risk.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it