Analytical Iterative Multistep Interval Forecasts of Wind Generation Based on TLGP
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Probabilistic wind power forecasting has become an important tool for optimal economic dispatch and unit commitment of modern power systems with significant renewable energy penetrations. Ensemble forecasting based on Monte Carlo simulation has been widely adopted by grid operators, but other probabilistic approaches, such as multistep iterative wind power forecasting have not yet been fully explored. The associated uncertainty analysis is an important yet challenging issue in this area. This paper proposes to use an analytic interval forecasting framework to estimate the forecasting uncertainty and its propagation with multisteps for two wind farms based on the temporally local Gaussian process (TLGP) model. The key findings confirm that TLGP forecasting not only has better accuracy but is also more reliable and sharp than other benchmark models. This paper provides an innovative analytical framework for iterative multistep interval forecasts.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".