Validating <i>Sclerotinia sclerotiorum</i> Apothecial Models to Predict Sclerotinia Stem Rot in Soybean (<i>Glycine max</i>) Fields
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In soybean, Sclerotinia sclerotiorum apothecia are the sources of primary inoculum (ascospores) critical for Sclerotinia stem rot (SSR) development. We recently developed logistic regression models to predict the presence of apothecia in irrigated and nonirrigated soybean fields. In 2017, small-plot trials were established to validate two weather-based models (one for irrigated fields and one for nonirrigated fields) to predict SSR development. Additionally, apothecial scouting and disease monitoring were conducted in 60 commercial fields in three states between 2016 and 2017 to evaluate model accuracy across the growing region. Site-specific air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed data were obtained through the Integrated Pest Information Platform for Extension and Education (iPiPE) and Dark Sky weather networks. Across all locations, iPiPE-driven model predictions during the soybean flowering period (R1 to R4 growth stages) explained end-of-season disease observations with an accuracy of 81.8% using a probability action threshold of 35%. Dark Sky data, incorporating bias corrections for weather variables, explained end-of-season disease observations with 87.9% accuracy (in 2017 commercial locations in Wisconsin) using a 40% probability threshold. Overall, these validations indicate that these two weather-based apothecial models, using either weather data source, provide disease risk predictions that both reduce unnecessary chemical application and accurately advise applications at critical times.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".