A Bayesian finite mixture of bivariate regression model for causal mediation analyses
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Building on the work of Schwartz et al, Joint Bayesian analysis of birthweight and censored gestational age using finite mixture models in Statistics in Medicine, we propose a Bayesian finite mixture of bivariate regression model for causal mediation analyses. Using an identifiability condition within each component of the mixture, we express the natural direct and indirect effects of the exposure on the outcome as functions of the component-specific regression coefficients. On the basis of simulated data, we examine the behavior of the model for estimating these effects in situations where the associations between exposure, mediator, and outcome are confounded or not. Additionally, we demonstrate that this mixture model can be used to account for heterogeneity arising through unmeasured binary or categorical mediator-outcome confounders. Considering gestational age as a potential mediator, we then illustrate our mediation mixture model to estimate the natural direct and indirect effects of exposure to inhaled corticosteroids during pregnancy on birthweight using a cohort of asthmatic women from the province of Quebec (Canada).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.020 | 0.045 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.006 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".