Correlating tropical climate with survival of an Arctic-breeding, trans-equatorial migrant seabird
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Extreme climate can negatively affect survival through increased physiological demands or by reducing prey availability. This can have significant population-level consequences for organisms with low reproductive rates, such as seabirds. As an Arctic-breeding trans-equatorial migrant, Sabine’s gull (Xema sabini) is exposed to a profound variety of climate regimes during the year. Therefore, its annual survival may be affected by broad-scale teleconnection patterns that influence regional climate variability. We used Program MARK to estimate apparent survival and resighting probabilities from 2007 to 2013 for adult Sabine’s gulls breeding at a High Arctic colony. We then combined capture–mark–recapture data for the High Arctic colony with those previously published from a Low Arctic colony (1998–2002) to examine influences of climate variability on survival. Mean ± standard error apparent survival estimated for the High Arctic colony was 0.90 ± 0.03, similar to that previously reported for the Low Arctic colony. We found a negative relationship between survival and the Tropical/Northern Hemisphere pattern, an atmospheric mode that is associated with the Pacific jet stream. Our study suggests that although Sabine’s gull survival was generally high and relatively constant over time, adult mortality may increase during years of extreme climate events in regions far beyond their Arctic breeding grounds.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it