Climate change increases ecogeographical isolation between closely related plants
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Ecogeographical isolation is a fundamental prezygotic barrier to reproduction and a step towards diversification in flowering plants. However, whether ecogeographical isolation acts as a reproductive barrier between species and thus as a mechanism for species divergence is unclear and is expected to change as species distributions shift under climate change. Using a Maxent framework, we quantified the extent of ecogeographical isolation of nine closely related species of the European plant genus Pulmonaria , which lack premating barriers and often form hybrids. We investigated ecogeographical isolation under both current conditions and four climate change scenarios; two unrelated future climate models, each with two predictions of the potential trajectories of climate change. Compared with current climates, under these future climate scenarios, there will be an increase in mean annual temperature, but not in mean annual precipitation in the range of Pulmonaria throughout Europe. This will result in a range contraction in three of the nine Pulmonaria species, a range expansion in two species, and no clear effect of climate change on the ranges of four species. Climate change will result in an overall increase in ecogeographical isolation between these species in future. In particular, species that have low ecogeographical isolation under current conditions are predicted to increase the most in their ecogeographical isolation under climate change. Synthesis . These results highlight that climate change can strongly impact on a major premating barrier of closely related species, therefore potentially affect the evolutionary trajectory of plants in the future.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.039 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".