Clinical and Economic Impact of a Potential Switch from 13-Valent to 10-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Infant Vaccination in Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been available in Canada since 2001, with 13-valent PCV (PCV13) added to the infant routine immunization program throughout all Canadian provinces by 2011. The use of PCVs has dramatically reduced the burden of pneumococcal disease in Canada. As a result, decision-makers may consider switching from a more costly, higher-valent vaccine to a lower-cost, lower-valent vaccine in an attempt to allocate funds for other vaccine programs. We assessed the health and economic impact of switching the infant vaccination program from PCV13 to 10-valent PCV (PCV10) in the context of the Canadian health care system. METHODS: We performed a review of Canadian databases supplemented with published and unpublished data to obtain the historical incidence of pneumococcal disease and direct and indirect medical costs. Observed invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) trends from surveillance data were used as a basis to forecast the future number of cases of IPD, pneumococcal pneumonia, and acute otitis media given a PCV13- or PCV10-based program. Costs and outcomes over 10 years were then estimated and presented in 2017 Canadian dollars discounted at 3% per year. RESULTS: Switching from PCV13 to PCV10 would result in an additional 762,531 cases of pneumococcal disease over 10 years. Although PCV13 has a higher acquisition cost, switching to PCV10 would increase overall costs by over $500 million. Forecasted overall disease incidence was estimated substantially higher with PCV10 than with PCV13 primarily because of the potential reemergence of serotypes 3 and 19A. PCV13 was also cost saving compared with PCV10, even within a 5-year time horizon. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that a PCV13-based program remained cost saving in all simulations. CONCLUSION: Although switching to a PCV10-based infant vaccination program in Canada might result in lower acquisition costs, it would also result in higher public health cost and burden because of serotype reemergence. FUNDING: Pfizer Inc.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".