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Record W2810792126 · doi:10.5430/ijfr.v9n3p103

Volatility Clustering at a Sector Level in the Chinese Equity Market

2018· article· en· W2810792126 on OpenAlexvenueno aff
Gerardo Alfonso

Bibliographic record

VenueInternational Journal of Financial Research · 2018
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicFinancial Risk and Volatility Modeling
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsVolatility (finance)Cluster analysisEconometricsEconomicsVolatility swapEquity (law)PortfolioVolatility clusteringVolatility risk premiumFinancial economicsImplied volatilityStatisticsAutoregressive conditional heteroskedasticityMathematics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The issue of volatility clustering i.e., if periods of high volatility on stocks returns are typically followed by other periods of high volatility and vice versa, is analysed in this article at a sector level for the Chinese stock market. This analysis was performed with daily returns for the period from 2008 to 2017. When the entire dataset is analysed the statistical tests are rather consistent indicating that there is volatility clustering for all the major nine sectors (basic materials, communications, consumer cyclical, consumer non-cyclical, energy financial, industrial, technology and utilities). However, when each year is analysed independently the results are much more mixed with some sectors, such as technology companies, that could a priori look as a prime candidate for volatility clustering having less years with such feature present that other sectors such as for instance basic materials. The issue of volatility clustering at a sector level is of clear interest and can be used as another tool to optimize portfolio allocations. It is interesting to see that volatility clustering seems to be present when the statistical tests are performed over long periods of time but less so when the timeframe is shortened.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.011
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.006
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.108
Threshold uncertainty score0.773

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0110.006
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.237
GPT teacher head0.417
Teacher spread0.180 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2018
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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