The effect of the 2013–2016 high temperature anomaly in the subarctic Northeast Pacific (the “Blob”) on net community production
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. A large anomalously warm water patch (the “Blob”) appeared in the NE Pacific Ocean in the winter of 2013–2014 and persisted through 2016 causing strong positive upper ocean temperature anomalies at Ocean Station Papa (OSP, 50∘ N, 145∘ W). The effect of the temperature anomalies on annual net community production (ANCP) was determined by upper ocean chemical mass balances of O2 and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) using data from a profiling float and a surface mooring. Year-round oxygen mass balance in the upper ocean (0 to 91–111 m) indicates that ANCP decreased after the first year when warmer water invaded this area and then returned to the “pre-Blob” value (2.4, 0.8, 2.1, and 1.6 mol C m−2 yr−1 from 2012 to 2016, with a mean value of 1.7±0.7 mol C m−2 yr−1). ANCP determined from the DIC mass balance has a mean value that is similar within the errors as that from the O2 mass balance but without a significant trend (2.0, 2.1, 2.6, and 3.0 mol C m−2 yr−1 with a mean value of 2.4±0.6 mol C m−2 yr−1). This is likely due to differences in the air–sea gas exchange, which is a major term for both mass balances. Oxygen has a residence time with respect to gas exchange of about 1 month while the CO2 gas exchange response time is more like a year. Therefore the biologically induced oxygen saturation anomaly responds fast enough to record annual changes, whereas that for CO2 does not. Phytoplankton pigment analysis from the upper ocean shows lower chlorophyll a concentrations and changes in plankton community composition (greater relative abundance of picoplankton) in the year after the warm water patch entered the area than in previous and subsequent years. Our analysis of multiple physical and biological processes that may have caused the ANCP decrease after warm water entered the area suggests that it was most likely due to the temperature-induced changes in biological processes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".