Importance of Well Spacing and Orientation for Multi-Lateral Pads on Production: Learnings from Production Analysis and Numerical Modelling of the Mannville Coal Measures, South Central Alberta
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The modelling results from numerical simulations of the Early Cretaceous, Mannville coal measures with anisotropic permeability provide insights into development strategies not readily visualized or otherwise intuitive. The complex relationships between water and gas production, the contribution from multiple coal seams as well as from organic rich shales, and the impact of well interference combined with anisotropic fracture permeability are investigated through a series of numerical simulations of four well-pads (on the corners of a square mile of land with decreasing well spacing from 1, 3, to 4 laterals per pad). After 25 years of production, the two pads with optimally-oriented laterals with respect to the fracture permeability anisotropy produce 61% of the recovered gas for the 1 lateral/pad model, 52% for the 3 laterals/pad model, and 50% for the 4 laterals/pad model. Downspacing has a greater impact on increasing the gas production from pads with the poorly-oriented main laterals than from the pads with the optimally-oriented main laterals. The cumulative gas production at the end of the 25 year history is 4.2% higher for an optimally-oriented pad (pad1) and 1.1× higher for a poorly-oriented pad (pad3) for a model with 4 laterals/pad than 3 laterals/pad and an optimally-oriented pad is 1.1% higher for an optimally-oriented pad and 1.5× higher for a poorly-oriented pad for a model with 3 laterals/pad than 1 lateral/pad. Although downspacing from 3 to 4 laterals/pad has a greater impact on increasing the cumulative gas production from optimally-oriented pads than downspacing from 1 to 3 laterals/pad, the lower impact on poorly-oriented pads results in a lower total increase the cumulative gas production from the four pads. At the end of the 25-year production history, 9.0% more gas is recovered for the 4 lateral/pad model than the 3 lateral/pad model, which predicts 1.2× more gas than the 1 lateral/pad model. The recovered shale gas exceeds the recovered coal gas after ~7 years of production. The higher contribution of produced coal gas predicted due to downspacing results from a higher contribution of recovered gas from the main coal seam, while the contribution from the minor coal seams is lower. Downspacing has a minimal impact on the cumulative water production; after 25 years of production a difference of 1.0% is predicted between models with 4 and 3 laterals/pad and 1.7% between models with 1 and 3 laterals/pad. While downspacing increases the cumulative water production for the poorly-oriented pads (1.1× for 3 to 4 laterals/pad and 1.3× for 3 to 1 lateral/pad after 25 years), the cumulative water production for the optimally-oriented pads is lower over the majority of the production history (after ~4 years and 3.2% lower after 25 years for 3 to 4 laterals/pad and after ~6 months and 1.1× lower after 25 years for 1 to 3 laterals/pad).
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it