Incident HIV infection has fallen rapidly in men who have sex with men in Melbourne, Australia (2013–2017) but not in the newly-arrived Asian-born
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: We examined differences in incident HIV infection between newly-arrived Asian-born and other men who have sex with men (MSM) after the introduction of universal HIV treatment guidelines in 2015 and pre-exposure prophylaxis in 2016. METHODS: Clinical, demographic, laboratory and behavioural data on MSM presenting for HIV testing at the Melbourne Sexual Health Centre from July 2013 to June 2017 were extracted. We compared the proportion of newly-arrived (four years or less in Australia), Asian-born and other MSM tested each year who were diagnosed with incident HIV infection (negative test within one year or diagnosis with indeterminate or negative Western Blot). RESULTS: We analysed 35,743 testing episodes in 12,180 MSM, including 2781 testing episodes in 1047 newly-arrived Asian-born MSM. The proportion of other MSM tested each year who were diagnosed with incident HIV infection fell from 0.83% in 2014 to 0.38% in 2017 (p = .001), but did not fall in newly-arrived Asian-born MSM (from 1.18% in 2014 to 1.56% in 2017, p = .76). In the multivariate logistic regression, in 2016/2017 but not in 2014/2015, being newly-arrived Asian-born was associated with an increased odds of diagnosis of incident HIV infection (aOR 3.29, 95%CI 1.82-5.94, p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiology of HIV in Melbourne Australia has changed dramatically. While there has been an overall reduction amongst MSM, the incidence of HIV in newly-arrived Asian-born MSM remains high. Failing to address these new inequalities leaves individuals at risk and may offset the population benefit of biomedical HIV prevention.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".