Limited Usefulness of Capture Procedure and Capture Percentage for Evaluating Reproducibility in Psychological Science
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In psychological science, there is an increasing concern regarding the reproducibility of scientific findings. For instance, Replication Project: Psychology (Open Science Collaboration, 2015) found that the proportion of successful replication in psychology was 41%. This proportion was calculated based on Cumming and Maillardet’s (2006) widely employed capture procedure (CPro) and capture percentage (CPer). Despite the popularity of CPro and CPer, we believe that using them may lead to an incorrect conclusion of (a) successful replication when the population effect sizes in the original and replicated studies are different; and (b) unsuccessful replication when the population effect sizes in the original and replicated studies are identical but their sample sizes are different. Our simulation results show that the performances of CPro and CPer become biased, such that researchers can easily make a wrong conclusion of successful/unsuccessful replication. Implications of these findings are considered in the conclusion.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.599 | 0.860 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.006 | 0.015 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.009 | 0.013 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.012 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.013 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.007 |
| Research integrity | 0.010 | 0.007 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; the direct Gemma label and the distilled Codex classifier agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".