Validating the accuracy of place of death in Vital Statistics of Calgary Zone residents in 2015
Bibliographic record
Abstract
IntroductionAdministrators and researchers of community and hospital based palliative care services have relied on Vital Statistics for place of death information without knowing the full extent of its accuracy. We sought to understand and document whether Vital Statistics’ place of death is confirmed by other data sources. Objectives and ApproachUnderstand the degree of confirmation of Vital Statistics' place of death with multiple data sources using a first found cascading method. The following order of cascading data sources were used: Discharge Abstract Data (DAD), National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS), Strata Health Pathways (hospice), ACCIS (LTC), and PARIS (supportive living). Hospital deaths were first confirmed using DAD. If not found, we searched the next data source NACRS (Emergency Department) followed by hospice, long term care, and supportive living. If the death was not found in these five sources, death was classified as 'Other" and the residency of home was inferred. ResultsOf 7,176 deaths recorded in Vital Statistics (VS), 4,749 were confirmed of which 78% (N=2580) of VS hospital deaths, 96.2 (N=1179) of VS home deaths, and 60.3% (N=990) of VS Nursing Home deaths were confirmed. Inferred nursing home death were recorded as Hospital (N=147), Auxiliary Hospitals (N=61), and Other (N=41). Inferred home deaths were classified as Other (256), Hospital (84), Nursing Home (33), Unknown (7), and En Route (7). Inferred en route or emergency department death were classified as hospital (360). Supportive living deaths, not a category in Vital Statistics, were classified as Other (N=81), Nursing Home (N=51), At Home (N=33). Hospice death, no longer a category in Vital Statistics since 2012, were classified as Nursing Home (N=563), Hospital (N=152), Auxiliary Hospital (N=168), Other (N=334). Conclusion/Implications66% of 7,176 Deaths in Vital Statistics were confirmed by other data sources. Using multiple data sources, hospital deaths would decrease by 22%, confirmed nursing home death would increase by 25%, and hospice deaths would no longer be misclassified into hospital (N=152), Aux. Hospital (N=168), and Other (N=334).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.021 | 0.062 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".