Bioclimatic assessment of abiotic factors affecting relative abundance and distribution of wheat stem sawfly (Hymenoptera: Cephidae) in western Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Wheat stem sawfly, Cephus cinctus Norton (Hymenoptera: Cephidae), indigenous to North America, quickly adapted from host native grasses to wheat crops ( Triticum Linnaeus (Poaceae)) with expansion of agriculture on the Great Plains of North America. Bioclimatic simulation tools, such as Climex, predict the potential geographic distribution and establishment of insects in ecosystems, based on climate. The ecoclimatic index, a measure of ecological suitability, integrates potential population growth with stresses to produce estimates of relative abundance. This simulation software was used to develop a bioclimate model for C. cinctus in western Canada. Results fostered a better understanding of how C. cinctus responded to selected climate variables. Two general circulation models were then applied to assess the response of C. cinctus populations to future climate. Relative to current climate, predicted changes in C. cinctus distribution and relative abundance were greatest for 2030, with a small further increase for 2070. Across the Prairies and Boreal Plains Ecozones, changes in ecoclimatic index were greater than in geographic distribution. Both general circulation models indicated most of this area would be categorised as very favourable. This suggests that the potential for pest populations could expand into areas that do not currently experience economic losses associated with C. cinctus .
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".