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Record W2892929070

Monetary Policy: No Surprise Here

2007· article· en· W2892929070 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
John B. Carlson, Bethany Tinlin

Bibliographic record

VenueEconomic Trends · 2007
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicGlobal Financial Crisis and Policies
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsInflation (cosmology)PaceSurpriseOpen market operationStatement (logic)Monetary policyQuarter (Canadian coin)EconomicsFederal fundsCore inflationInterest rateMonetary economicsParagraphPolitical scienceInflation targetingHistoryGeographyPsychologyLaw
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

As widely anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the target level of the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25 percent this afternoon. It was the seventh consecutive meeting with no change. The inflation-adjusted fed funds rate remains near 3 percent, or about 400 b.p. above its low of June 2004. Changes in the FOMC’s post-meeting statement language were minimal, largely reflecting information revealed since the March meeting. For instance, in its rationale the FOMC acknowledged the weak first-quarter GDP report, changing the first sentence of the second paragraph to “Economic growth slowed in the first part of the year …” from the March language, “Recent indicators have been mixed ….” The statement maintained its outlook that “the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over the coming quarters.” The reference to inflation was made more concise, replacing “Recent readings on core inflation have been somewhat elevated,” with the statement “Core inflation remains somewhat elevated.”

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.756
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.012

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.017
GPT teacher head0.236
Teacher spread0.219 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.

Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2007
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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