Stretching the Duck's Neck: The effect of climate change on future electricity demand
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper examines how climate change will affect both the level and timing of future electricity demand across Canada. Using an original dataset of hourly electricity demand across all Canadian provinces combined with household-level microdata on air conditioner ownership, we estimate temperature responsiveness including both the direct effect of temperature on demand for cooling services, as well as the indirect effect of increasing the stock of temperature-sensitive durables, such as air conditioners. We find only a small increase in total demand by end-century, although the result differs across provinces. The small aggregate result reflects the mitigating effect of rising temperature in a cold country such as Canada, whereby increases in electricity demand for air conditioning as summer temperatures rise is largely offset by reduced winter heating demand. Although we project limited change in overall electricity demand, we do project changes in the timing of demand, both seasonally and diurnally. In particular, we find seasonal peaks shift from winter to summer in most regions, as well as a large increase in intraday ramping requirements—the difference between minimum and maximum demand within a day—suggesting electricity systems of the future will place an even greater value on storage and flexibility.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".