Seasonal demography of the threatened Montevideo Redbelly Toad (<i>Melanophryniscus montevidensis</i>) in a protected area of Uruguay
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Estimates of demographic parameters are scarce for Neotropical amphibians, a concerning fact because this region has the highest proportion of threatened amphibians in the world. We conducted a 3-year study where we applied a robust capture–mark–recapture design to assess the importance of breeding and non-breeding activity patterns over the survival rates, detection probabilities, and abundances of the Montevideo Redbelly Toad (Melanophryniscus montevidensis (Philippi, 1902)), a threatened anuran from Uruguay. The best models grouped seasons into hot and cold periods cyclically, were state-dependent in transition probabilities, and were time-dependent in detection probabilities for adults, but had constant detection probabilities for juveniles. Averaged estimates suggest a high survivorship rate during cold seasons (above 80%), but lower probabilities (below 60%) during hot seasons, especially for males. Analogously, the non-breeding activity had a seasonal pattern, with higher activity during spring and higher sheltering rates during autumn. These activity rates negatively influenced the averaged survivorship rates of adult males and females. Long-term (matrix) projections of seasonal survivorships, along with assessments of the causes of these patterns, should be carried out to determine extinction probabilities and possible threats for the conservation of the genus Melanophryniscus.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".