A temporal shift in trophic diversity among a predator assemblage in a warming Arctic
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change is leading to northward shifts in species distributions that is altering interspecific interactions at low- and mid-trophic levels. However, little attention has been focused on the effects of redistributions of species on the trophic ecology of a high trophic-level predator assemblage. Here, during a 22-year period (1990–2012) of increasing sea temperature (1.0°C) and decreasing sea ice extent (12%) in Cumberland Sound, Nunavut, Canada, we examined the trophic structure of a near-apex predator assemblage before (1990–2002) and after (2005–2012) an increase in the availability of capelin—generally an indicator species in colder marine environments for a warming climate. Stable isotopes (δ 13 C and δ 15 N) were used in a Bayesian framework to assess shifts in diet, niche size and community-wide metrics for beluga whales ( Delphinapterus leucas ), ringed seals ( Pusa hispida ), Greenland halibut ( Reinhardtius hippoglossoides ) and anadromous Arctic char ( Salvelinus alpinus ). After 2005, consumption of forage fish increased for all predator species, suggesting diet flexibility with changing abiotic and biotic conditions. An associated temporal shift from a trophically diverse to a trophically redundant predator assemblage occurred where predators now play similar trophic roles by consuming prey primarily from the pelagic energy pathway. Overall, these long-term ecological changes signify that trophic shifts of a high trophic-level predator assemblage associated with climate change have occurred in the Arctic food web.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.015 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it