Risk for Herpes Zoster in Tofacitinib‐Treated Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients With and Without Concomitant Methotrexate and Glucocorticoids
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Increased incidence of herpes zoster (HZ) has been observed with JAK inhibitors such as tofacitinib. However, whether concomitant methotrexate (MTX) and/or glucocorticoids confer additional (additive or multiplicative) risk is unclear. We evaluated HZ risk in tofacitinib users with and without MTX and glucocorticoids. METHODS: Within MarketScan and Medicare data (2011-2016), we identified all patients with rheumatologist-diagnosed rheumatoid arthritis initiating treatment with tofacitinib (index date); demographics and baseline covariates were evaluated in the year prior to the index date. HZ was ascertained using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision or Tenth Revision codes with antiviral drug use (±7 days). Multivariable Cox regression was used to evaluate hazard ratios (HRs) for HZ in tofacitinib users with and without current concomitant MTX and glucocorticoids, controlling for baseline covariates. RESULTS: We studied 8,030 new tofacitinib users (83.3% women). The mean ± SD age was 60.3 ± 12.6 years. HZ incidence in tofacitinib users was numerically lowest in the absence of glucocorticoids (3.4 per 100 patient-years with MTX; 3.7 per 100 patient-years without MTX). An approximately 2-fold increased incidence of HZ was observed for tofacitinib users receiving either glucocorticoids alone (6.0 per 100 patient-years) or both MTX plus glucocorticoids (6.5 per 100 patient-years). The adjusted HR for HZ in tofacitinib users was unchanged (HR 0.99 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.64-1.54]) when given only with MTX, but was increased (HR 1.96 [95% CI 1.33-2.88]) for tofacitinib plus glucocorticoids. Older age and female sex were also risk factors, while prior vaccination was associated with a strong trend for lower risk. CONCLUSION: In tofacitinib users, HZ occurred at a rate of approximately 4% per year and was further doubled with glucocorticoid exposure. Concomitant MTX did not confer additional risk. Zoster vaccination may decrease risk.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".