Confirmation of the radial velocity super-Earth K2-18c with HARPS and CARMENES
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In an earlier campaign to characterize the mass of the transiting temperate super-Earth K2-18b with HARPS, a second, non-transiting planet was posited to exist in the system at ~9 days. Further radial velocity follow-up with the CARMENES spectrograph visible channel revealed a much weaker signal at 9 days, which also appeared to vary chromatically and temporally, leading to the conclusion that the origin of the 9-day signal was more likely related to stellar activity than to a planetary presence. Here we conduct a detailed reanalysis of all available RV time-series – including a set of 31 previously unpublished HARPS measurements – to investigate the effects of time-sampling and of simultaneous modelling of planetary plus activity signals on the existence and origin of the curious 9-day signal. We conclude that the 9-day signal is real and was initially seen to be suppressed in the CARMENES data due to a small number of anomalous measurements, although the exact cause of these anomalies remains unknown. Investigation of the signal’s evolution in time with wavelength and detailed model comparison reveals that the 9-day signal is most likely planetary in nature. Using this analysis, we reconcile the conflicting HARPS and CARMENES results and measure precise and self-consistent planet masses of mp,b = 8.63 ± 1.35 and mp,c sinic = 5.62 ± 0.84 Earth masses. This work, along with the previously published RV papers on the K2-18 planetary system, highlights the importance of understanding the time-sampling and of modelling the simultaneous planet plus stochastic activity, particularly when searching for sub-Neptune-sized planets with radial velocities.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".