A Lack of Dynamic Triggering of Slow Slip and Tremor Indicates That the Shallow Cascadia Megathrust Offshore Vancouver Island Is Likely Locked
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Great subduction zone earthquakes vary considerably in the updip extent of megathrust rupture. It is unclear if this diversity reflects variations in interseismic strain accumulation owing to the limited number of subduction zones with seafloor monitoring. We use a borehole seismic‐geodetic observatory installed at the updip end of the Cascadia fault offshore Vancouver Island to show that the megathrust there does not appear to slip in triggered tremor or slow‐slip events when subjected to moderate dynamic stress transients. Borehole tilt and seismic data from recent teleseismic M7.6–8.1 earthquakes demonstrate a lack of triggered slow slip above the Mw 4.0 level and an absence of triggered tremor despite shear‐stress transients of 1–10 kPa that were sufficient to trigger tremor on the downdip end of the interface. Our observations are most consistent with a model in which the Cascadia fault offshore Vancouver Island is locked all the way to the trench.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".