Non-Invasive Prediction of High-Risk Varices in Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis and Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Baveno-VI guidelines recommend that patients with compensated cirrhosis with liver stiffness by transient elastography (LSM-TE) <20 kPa and platelets >150,000/mm(3) do not need an esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) to screen for varices, since the risk of having varices needing treatment (VNT) is <5%. It remains uncertain if this tool can be used in patients with cholestatic liver diseases (ChLDs): primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). These patients may have a pre-sinusoidal component of portal hypertension that could affect the performance of this rule. In this study we evaluated the performance of Baveno-VI, expanded Baveno-VI (LSM-TE <25 kPa and platelets >110,000/mm(3)), and other criteria in predicting the absence of VNT. METHODS: This was a multicenter cross-sectional study in four referral hospitals. We retrospectively analyzed data from 227 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) due to PBC (n = 147) and PSC (n = 80) that had paired EGD and LSM-TE. We calculated false negative rate (FNR) and number of saved endoscopies for each prediction rule. RESULTS: Prevalence of VNT was 13%. Baveno-VI criteria had a 0% FNR in PBC and PSC, saving 39 and 30% of EGDs, respectively. In PBC the other LSM-TE-based criteria resulted in FNRs >5%. In PSC the expanded Baveno criteria had an adequate performance. In both conditions LSM-TE-independent criteria resulted in an acceptable FNR but saved less EGDs. CONCLUSIONS: Baveno-VI criteria can be applied in patients with cACLD due to ChLDs, which would result in saving 30-40% of EGDs. Expanded criteria in PBC would lead to FNRs >5%.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".