1442. Pneumonia Hospitalizations Averted With 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination of Adults Aged 18–64 Years With Diabetes in the United States
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Diabetes, a prevalent chronic condition in younger adults, increases the risk of pneumonia. The incidence of pneumonia hospitalization among adults aged <65 years with diabetes is comparable to that of the overall population aged ≥65 years. While 13-valent conjugate pneumococcal vaccination (PCV13) is routinely recommended for adults aged ≥65 years, it has not been recommended for younger adults with diabetes. We modeled the potential impact of PCV13 use in this population. We estimated the cumulative number of pneumonia hospitalizations and hospital days potentially averted with PCV13 use in adults aged <65 years with diabetes over 5 years in the United States. Model inputs are summarized in Table 1. We ran multiple scenarios depending on a number of vaccine efficacy/effectiveness (VE) estimates. We estimated the number of hospitalizations averted as the product of (i) the size of the target population, (ii) the incidence of all-cause CAP, (iii) the proportion of CAP that is PCV13 type, (iv) PCV13 effectiveness, and (v) the duration of protection for PCV13 over a 5-year time horizon. Number-needed-to-vaccinate (NNV) for each scenario was also assessed. Roughly 15 million adults aged <65 years have diabetes in the United States, accounting for about 250,000 pneumonia hospitalizations annually. Based on published, US estimates of pneumonia incidence and PCV13 etiology, PCV13 vaccination in this population could avert 24,638–44,506 hospitalizations and 206,955–373,854 hospital days over a 5-year period. NNV to avert one hospitalization and one hospital day were 344–622 and 41–74, respectively. PCV13 vaccination of younger adults with diabetes could reduce a substantial number of pneumonia hospitalizations. NNV is comparable to those for adults aged ≥65 years, for whom PCV13 is currently recommended. J. Suaya, B. D. Gessner, E. Chilson, D. L. Swerdlow, J. M. McLaughlin: Pfizer Inc.: Employee and Shareholder, Salary. J. Vojicic, Pfizer: Employee and Shareholder, Benefits and stock and Salary. R. E. Isturiz, Pfizer: Employee and Shareholder, Benefits and stock and Salary.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".