Phylogeographic Analysis Reveals Multiple International transmission Events Have Driven the Global Emergence of Escherichia coli O157:H7
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Shiga toxin-producing Escherchia coli (STEC) O157:H7 is a zoonotic pathogen that causes numerous food and waterborne disease outbreaks. It is globally distributed, but its origin and the temporal sequence of its geographical spread are unknown. METHODS: We analyzed whole-genome sequencing data of 757 isolates from 4 continents, and performed a pan-genome analysis to identify the core genome and, from this, extracted single-nucleotide polymorphisms. A timed phylogeographic analysis was performed on a subset of the isolates to investigate its worldwide spread. RESULTS: The common ancestor of this set of isolates occurred around 1890 (1845-1925) and originated from the Netherlands. Phylogeographic analysis identified 34 major transmission events. The earliest were predominantly intercontinental, moving from Europe to Australia around 1937 (1909-1958), to the United States in 1941 (1921-1962), to Canada in 1960 (1943-1979), and from Australia to New Zealand in 1966 (1943-1982). This pre-dates the first reported human case of E. coli O157:H7, which was in 1975 from the United States. CONCLUSIONS: Inter- and intra-continental transmission events have resulted in the current international distribution of E. coli O157:H7, and it is likely that these events were facilitated by animal movements (eg, Holstein Friesian cattle). These findings will inform policy on action that is crucial to reduce the further spread of E. coli O157:H7 and other (emerging) STEC strains globally.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".