Documenting successful recruitment of monarch butterflies (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) at the extreme northern edge of their range
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus (Linnaeus) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae)) in eastern North America migrate each year from overwintering areas in Mexico to cover a large breeding distribution across the United States of America and southern Canada. In 2012, monarch butterflies migrated well beyond their usual range, resulting in an extended breeding distribution compared to typical years. We used stable isotope (δ2H, δ13C) measurements in wing chitin to determine the area of natal origin of these butterflies. Most monarch butterflies collected in May, June, and July from Manitoba and Alberta, Canada had natal origins in the North American Midwest. Monarch butterflies collected in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada in August and September had local natal origins indicating successful recruitment of offspring from colonising individuals. However, it is unknown whether these offspring migrated successfully to overwintering areas. Our work highlights the ability of monarch butterflies to colonise distant breeding areas and demonstrates how stable isotopes can be used to understand the dynamics of range-edge populations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".