Eastern Canada Flooding 2017 and its Subseasonal Predictions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Severe damage was caused by a flooding event across eastern Canada during the first week of May 2017. Thousands of residences were affected, and many people were evacuated from their homes in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. This event was mainly caused by persistent heavy rainfall during that week. In this study, the ability to make a useful prediction of this flooding event about two weeks in advance is assessed for 11 subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models. It is found that the above-normal precipitation in eastern Canada during the week of 1–7 May was predicted by most of the models a few weeks in advance although the forecast anomaly was, in general, weaker than observed. These models also predicted a high probability of extreme precipitation. Analysis of the atmospheric circulation pattern associated with the flooding event revealed a wave train of 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly along mid-latitudes from the North Pacific across North America to the North Atlantic, which sets up a favourable environment for strong water vapour transport from the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic to eastern Canada. Most models were able to predict this wave train. We found that this flooding event is likely connected to the tropical Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) through atmospheric teleconnections. During the week of 24–30 April the MJO was observed to be in phase 7 with enhanced convection in the western-central Pacific. A numerical experiment was conducted using a linear model with specified tropical diabatic heating similar to MJO phase 7. The resulting 500 hPa geopotential height response has many similarities to the observed wave train that was responsible for the flooding event.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".