Beyond the traditional simulation design for evaluating type 1 error control: From the “theoretical” null to “empirical” null
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract When evaluating a newly developed statistical test, an important step is to check its type 1 error (T1E) control using simulations. This is often achieved by the standard simulation design S0 under the so‐called “theoretical” null of no association. In practice, the whole‐genome association analyses scan through a large number of genetic markers ( s) for the ones associated with an outcome of interest ( ), where comes from an alternative while the majority of s are not associated with ; the relationships are under the “empirical” null. This reality can be better represented by two other simulation designs, where design S1.1 simulates from an alternative model based on , then evaluates its association with independently generated ; while design S1.2 evaluates the association between permutated and . More than a decade ago, Efron (2004) has noted the important distinction between the “theoretical” and “empirical” null in false discovery rate control. Using scale tests for variance heterogeneity, direct univariate, and multivariate interaction tests as examples, here we show that not all null simulation designs are equal. In examining the accuracy of a likelihood ratio test, while simulation design S0 suggested the method being accurate, designs S1.1 and S1.2 revealed its increased empirical T1E rate if applied in real data setting. The inflation becomes more severe at the tail and does not diminish as sample size increases. This is an important observation that calls for new practices for methods evaluation and T1E control interpretation.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.016 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it