Phenological synchrony between eastern spruce budworm and its host trees increases with warmer temperatures in the boreal forest
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change is predicted to alter relationships between trophic levels by changing the phenology of interacting species. We tested whether synchrony between two critical phenological events, budburst of host species and larval emergence from diapause of eastern spruce budworm, increased at warmer temperatures in the boreal forest in northeastern Canada. Budburst was up to 4.6 ± 0.7 days earlier in balsam fir and up to 2.8 ± 0.8 days earlier in black spruce per degree increase in temperature, in naturally occurring microclimates. Larval emergence from diapause did not exhibit a similar response. Instead, larvae emerged once average ambient temperatures reached 10°C, regardless of differences in microclimate. Phenological synchrony increased with warmer microclimates, tightening the relationship between spruce budworm and its host species. Synchrony increased by up to 4.5 ± 0.7 days for balsam fir and up to 2.8 ± 0.8 days for black spruce per degree increase in temperature. Under a warmer climate, defoliation could potentially begin earlier in the season, in which case, damage on the primary host, balsam fir may increase. Black spruce, which escapes severe herbivory because of a 2-week delay in budburst, would become more suitable as a resource for the spruce budworm. The northern boreal forest could become more vulnerable to outbreaks in the future.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".