Conventional analysis of trial-by-trial adaptation is biased: Empirical and theoretical support using a Bayesian estimator
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Research on human motor adaptation has often focused on how people adapt to self-generated or externally-influenced errors. Trial-by-trial adaptation is a person's response to self-generated errors. Externally-influenced errors applied as catch-trial perturbations are used to calculate a person's perturbation adaptation rate. Although these adaptation rates are sometimes compared to one another, we show through simulation and empirical data that the two metrics are distinct. We demonstrate that the trial-by-trial adaptation rate, often calculated as a coefficient in a linear regression, is biased under typical conditions. We tested 12 able-bodied subjects moving a cursor on a screen using a computer mouse. Statistically different adaptation rates arise when sub-sets of trials from different phases of learning are analyzed from within a sequence of movement results. We propose a new approach to identify when a person's learning has stabilized in order to identify steady-state movement trials from which to calculate a more reliable trial-by-trial adaptation rate. Using a Bayesian model of human movement, we show that this analysis approach is more consistent and provides a more confident estimate than alternative approaches. Constraining analyses to steady-state conditions will allow researchers to better decouple the multiple concurrent learning processes that occur while a person makes goal-directed movements. Streamlining this analysis may help broaden the impact of motor adaptation studies, perhaps even enhancing their clinical usefulness.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.042 | 0.242 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".