Bibliographic record
Abstract
The current paper aims to give an overview upon the evolution of the Chinese economical growth over the past two decades. By combining two types of analyses, the paper would also like to look on China’s economical growth perspectives in the past two decades. Thus, in the first part of our study we illustrate the results of a descriptive, critical, subjective and qualitative analyses on the main macroeconomic indexes used in determining the economic performance of a country (GDP, GDP per capita, imports and exports). The second part of the paper consists of a quantitative analysis of China’s economical growth, which combines the results of a time series econometric modulation for the GDP macroeconomic variable, and the resulted forecast based on the previously determined pattern. We based our study on a period of time dating from 1990 to 2014, suggesting that China registered a positive evolution both in terms of GDP and GDP per capita, as well as in terms of commercial exchanges, as a result of an economic reform gradually applied. Moreover, in order to determine China’s position within the current hierarchy of power centers, the G7 states (USA, Japan, Great Britain, France, Germany, Canada and Italy) were also introduced in the analysis. In terms of GDP, the United States was an absolute global leader until 2014 when it was outrun by China. As for the quantitative analysis, the period of time taken into consideration was also between the first trimester of 1990 and the third trimester of 2014, the observed values having a trimestral frequency. The final part of the study shows the results of the GDP forecast based on the previously determined ARMA pattern, as well as the forecasts given by the main international organizations (IMF and OECD), claiming China’s worldwide supremacy in terms of GDP, both on a short term (until 2020 - IMF), as well as on a long term and a very long term (until 2045, when Canada will swipe first places - OECD). The main conclusions which can be drawn by this study claim that, despite the slowing down of the GDP increase rate, China became a worldwide leader. Nonetheless, in order for China to keep its status, it must continue its ascending path from the past few decades and reorient to improve its global competitiveness and to ensure its economic sustainability.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".