MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W2910036584 · doi:10.1453/jel.v5i4.1782

The future of economic growth in the World’s largest economies

2018· article· en· W2910036584 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Ron W. Nielsen

Bibliographic record

VenueKSP Journals - Journal of Economics Bibliography · 2018
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicEconomic Growth and Productivity
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsChinaSustainable growth rateEconomicsEconomic expansionDevelopment economicsRussian federationEconomyGeographyEconomic policyMacroeconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The future of economic growth is projected by solving differential equations describing growth rate.Analysis was carried out for 12 countries representing the leading economies responsible for around 70% of the global economic output.Out of all these countries, the most secure and stable economic growth is in Japan, Germany and France.In contrast, economic growth in China, India and Brazil is strongly insecure and potentially leading to the economic collapse.Economic growth in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Australia is on the border line.It also might become unsustainable.Economic growth in the remaining two countries, Italy and Russian Federation, is unpredictable.As for the preventive measures, for Japan, Germany and France, growth rate should be, if possible, maintained at a small value below 1%.Economic growth in these countries is described by logistic trajectories.Their asymptotic approach to a maximum value is hard to control but the growth rate should not be allowed to be substantially increased.For China, India and Brazil, growth rate should be now decreasing sufficiently fast to avoid the potential economic collapse.For the USA, UK, Canada and Australia, it would be also advisable to decrease their growth rate faster than in the recent years.For two countries, Italy and Russian Federation, it is essential to stabilise, if possible, their economic growth.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.009
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Bibliometrics
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.442
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0090.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0130.004
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0020.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.029
GPT teacher head0.247
Teacher spread0.218 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2018
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueKSP Journals - Journal of Economics BibliographySame topicEconomic Growth and ProductivityFrench-language works237,207