A mathematical solution to Peto’s paradox using Polya’s urn model: implications for the aetiology of cancer in general
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Ageing is the leading risk factor for the emergence of cancer in humans. Accumulation of pro-carcinogenic events throughout life is believed to explain this observation; however, the lack of direct correlation between the number of cells in an organism and cancer incidence, known as Peto's Paradox, is at odds with this assumption. Finding the events responsible for this discrepancy can unveil mechanisms with potential uses in prevention and treatment of cancer in humans. On the other hand, the immune system is important in preventing the development of clinically relevant tumours by maintaining a fine equilibrium between reactive and suppressive lymphocyte clones. It is suggested here that the loss of this equilibrium is what ultimately leads to increased risk of cancer and to propose a mechanism for the changes in clonal proportions based on decreased proliferative capacity of lymphocyte clones as a natural phenomenon of ageing. This mechanism, being a function of the number of cells, provides an explanation for Peto's Paradox.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".