Detection of a 14-d atmospheric perturbation peak at Paranal associated with lunar cycles
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In this paper we investigate the correlation between the atmospheric perturbations at Paranal Observatory and the Chilean coast tides, which are mostly modulated by the 14-d syzygy solar–lunar tidal cycle. To this aim, we downloaded 15 yr (2003–2017) of cloud coverage data from the Aqua satellite, in a matrix that includes also Armazones, the site of the European Extremely Large Telescope. By applying the Fast Fourier transform to these data we detected a periodicity peak of about 14 d. We studied the tide cycle at Chanaral De Las Animas, on the ocean coast, for the year 2017, and we correlated it with the atmospheric perturbations at Paranal and the lunar phases. We found a significant correlation ($96{\rm {per\, cent}}$) between the phenomena of short duration and intensity (1–3 d) and the tidal cycle at Chanaral. We then show that an atmospheric perturbation occurs at Paranal in concomitance with the low tide, which anticipates the full (or the new) moon by 3–4 d. This result allows to improve current weather forecasting models for astronomical observatories by introducing a lunar variable.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".