Should potential for climate change refugia be mainstreamed into the criteria for describing EBSAs?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The world's oceans are subject to the influence of climate change at all latitudes and depths. There is a growing body of literature on the responses of species to climate change, which has a strong deterministic component indicating that responses can be predicted. At the same time, advances in oceanographic data acquisition and modeling have facilitated the identification of potential climate change refugia. The Convention on Biological Diversity's “Voluntary Specific Workplan on Biodiversity in Cold‐Water Areas within the Jurisdictional Scope of the Convention” explicitly calls for the identification and protection of refugia in cold‐water areas. We propose adding “Climate Change Refugium” as an integral consideration for identification of Ecologically or Biologically Significant Marine Areas (EBSAs). We provide a description of this as a potential eighth criterion. We then briefly discuss the pros and cons of introducing this eighth criterion, or an alternative strategy to develop guidelines that explicitly link refugia to the rationale of existing EBSA criteria, in the hope that this opinion piece will launch further discussion on this notion.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".