Exploring cyclic dominance of sockeye salmon with a predator-prey model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We explain in an intuitive and detailed way a predator-prey model that generates cyclic dominance in Fraser River sockeye salmon. In contrast with usual predator-prey models, this model includes four distinct prey lines and thus a combina- tion of continuous and discrete dynamics, reflecting the particular freshwater and marine life cycle features of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations. The predator-prey interaction causing the oscillations takes place in the rearing lakes, rather than in the ocean. The values of most parameters of this model can be estimated from empirical data that are available for the large salmon-rearing lakes in the Fraser River basin. The mechanism that produces the oscillations in this model is compared with other mechanisms that can generate population oscillations, and we argue that predator-prey dynamics is the most likely mechanism to produce the observed patterns. We explain why the period of the oscillation is exactly 4 years, and we explore how the dynamical pattern is affected by changes in external conditions or by management decisions. Resume : Nous expliquons de maniere intuitive et detaillee un modele predateurs-proies qui produit une dominance cyclique chez le saumon rouge du fleuve Fraser. Contrairement aux modeles predateurs-proies habituels, ce modele comprend quatre lignees de proies distinctes et, donc, une combinaison de dynamique continue et discrete qui reflete des caracteristiques precises des portions marines et d'eau douce du cycle biologique des populations de saumons rouges (Oncorhynchus nerka). L'interaction predateurs-proies qui cause les oscillations a lieu dans les lacs d'alevinage plutot que dans l'ocean. Les valeurs de la plupart des parametres de ce modele peuvent etre estimees apartir de donnees empiriques disponibles pour les grands lacs d'alevinage dans le bassin du fleuve Fraser. Le mecanisme qui produit les oscillations dans ce modele est compare ad'autres mecanismes qui peuvent produire des oscillations de la population, et nous arguons que la dynamique predateurs-proies est le mecanisme le plus susceptible de produire les distributions observees. Nous expliquons pourquoi la periode d'oscillation est d'exactement quatre ans et nous examinons l'incidence de variations de conditions externes ou de decisions de gestion sur cette dynamique. (Traduit par la Redaction)
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".