Identification of a Threshold Minimum Area for Reflectance Retrieval from Thermokarst Lakes and Ponds Using Full-Pixel Data from Sentinel-2
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Thermokarst waterbodies caused by permafrost thawing and degradation are ubiquitous in many subarctic and Arctic regions. They are globally important components of the biogeochemical carbon cycle and have potential feedback effects on climate. These northern waters are mostly small lakes and ponds, and although they may be mapped using very high-resolution satellites or aerial photography, these approaches are generally not suitable for monitoring purposes, due to the cost and limited availability of such images. In this study we evaluated the potential use of widely available high-resolution imagery from Sentinel-2 (S2) for the characterization of the spectral reflectance of thermokarst lakes and ponds. Specifically, we aimed to define the minimum lake area that could be reliably imaged, and to identify challenges and solutions for remote sensing of such waters in the future. The study was conducted in subarctic Canada, in the vicinity of Whapmagoostui-Kuujjuarapik (Nunavik, Québec), an area in the sporadic permafrost zone with numerous thermokarst waterbodies that vary greatly in size. Ground truthing lake reflectance data were collected using an Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) fitted with a multispectral camera that collected images at 13 cm resolution. The results were compared with reflectance from Sentinel-2 images, and the effect of lake area on the reflectance response was assessed. Our results show that Sentinel-2 imagery was suitable for waterbodies larger than 350 m2 once their boundaries were defined, which in the two test sites would allow monitoring from 11% to 30% of the waterbodies and 73% to 85% of the total lake area. Challenges for remote sensing of small lakes include the confounding effects of water reflection (both direct radiation and diffuse), wind and shadow. Given the small threshold area and frequent revisit time, Sentinel-2 provides a valuable approach towards the continuous monitoring of waterbodies, including ponds and small lakes such as those found in thermokarst landscapes. UASs provide a complementary approach for ground truthing and boundary definition.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Direct model labels (unvalidated)
Per-model category and study-design labels from the labeling rounds. They are machine output, unvalidated, and the disagreement between models ships as data. No study design here is MEDLINE-validated yet.
| Model arm | Categories | Study design | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| gemma | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Empirical About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no | Simulation or modeling | low |
| gpt | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Empirical About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no | Bench or experimental | high |
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedLabeled directly by 2 models reading the full record.
The models disagree on parts of this classification; every voice is preserved in the section at the end of the page.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".