Aortic Bulge: A Possible Predictive Sign of Impending Aortoenteric Fistula
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to introduce the aortic bulge sign, a finding observed retrospectively on computed tomography prior to the acute presentation of aortoenteric fistula, and to determine its interobserver reliability. METHODS: Following research ethics board approval, all cases of aortoenteric fistula at our institution occurring from 2011-2015 were identified retrospectively. All previous computed tomography images of patients who eventually developed aortoenteric fistula were reviewed by a single observer for the presence of a potentially predictive finding of fistulization, the aortic bulge sign. These previous images were then combined with age and sex matched controls into a case bank. Eight radiology residents and staff were instructed in observing the aortic bulge sign. These observers then reviewed the case bank in a blinded analysis to determine the interobserver reliability of this finding. RESULTS: Fourteen cases of aortoenteric were identified. The average patient age was 70.71 years with a male-to-female ratio of 11:3. Eleven patients had previous computed tomography images available for review. With blinded analysis by multiple observers, the aortic bulge sign was identified with greater than 80% agreement in six of 11 cases (66.67%). Fleiss' kappa was calculated at k = 0.60 (95% confidence interval 0.50-0.69), corresponding to moderate-to-substantial interobserver agreement. CONCLUSIONS: The aortic bulge sign has been retrospectively identified as a promising computed tomography finding of eventual aortoenteric fistula prior to acute presentation. Further study is required to determine the diagnostic value of this sign.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it