The Devdoraki Glacier Catastrophes, Georgian Caucasus
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study analyses the Devdoraki Glacier surge type catastrophes since 1776, lead to human casualties, destruction of settlements and the international road in the Georgian Caucasus. According to archival data, at least six ice and ice-rock avalanches fell from the Devdoraki Glacier onto the Tergi (Terek) River valley during the period 1776–1876, the largest on June 18, 1776 and on August 13, 1832. The first blocked the Tergi River for three days and was breached catastrophically; the second was ~100 m high and ~2 km wide and its breach started after 8 hours. The most recent hazard occurred on May 17, 2014 killing nine people, and destroyed the Trans-Caucasus gas pipeline, Dariali Hydropower Plant (HPP) and international road. Using aerial and satellite imagery – Landsat, ASTER, SENTINEL along with the 30 m resolution Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM; 17 November 2011) we have reconstructed this event. On the basis of subsequent detailed field observations, new geological and tectonic maps of the study region have been compiled. After that collapse we have registered ~180 m advance of the Devdoraki Glacier snout between 2014 and 2015, which was mostly caused by rock-ice avalanche deposits. This part of the glacier should be monitored continuously as it can raise debris flow activity in the future. We consider the main hypotheses behind these events, namely a) tectonic and seismic, b) permafrost, c) volcanic and d) morphological factors; interpret the data for mechanisms and velocities of the catastrophic movement and argue that the 2014 event should not be classified as a glacier surge, although the possibility of similar glacial surges can not be excluded. The Kazbegi-Jimara massif should be considered as a natural laboratory that enables the investigation of rock-ice avalanches and glacial mudflows.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.013 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".