The Relationship Between Social Media Data and Crime Rates in the United States
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Crime monitoring tools are needed for public health and law enforcement officials to deploy appropriate resources and develop targeted interventions. Social media, such as Twitter, has been shown to be a feasible tool for monitoring and predicting public health events such as disease outbreaks. Social media might also serve as a feasible tool for crime surveillance. In this study, we collected Twitter data between May and December 2012 and crime data for the years 2012 and 2013 in the United States. We examined the association between crime data and drug-related tweets. We found that tweets from 2012 were strongly associated with county-level crime data in both 2012 and 2013. This study presents preliminary evidence that social media data can be used to help predict future crimes. We discuss how future research can build upon this initial study to further examine the feasibility and effectiveness of this approach.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".