Joint Probabilistic Analysis of Risk for Aquatic Species and Exceedence Frequency for the Agricultural Use of Chlorpyrifos in the Pampean Region, Argentina
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The Pampa Húmeda region in Argentina is characterized by soybean, wheat, and maize production, with intensive application of agrochemicals such as herbicides and insecticides. We used a joint probabilistic approach to analyze the probabilities for environmental chlorpyrifos concentrations measured in the Pampa Húmeda to exceed acute or chronic hazardous concentration for 5% of the species (HC5) values estimated from species sensitivity distributions for aquatic species. Chlorpyrifos concentrations in water ranged from 0.0005 to 10.8 µg/L, with a median of 0.013 µg/L. The HC5 limits were 0.0637 µg/L for acute and 0.0007 µg/L for chronic effects. The probabilities for chlorpyrifos environmental concentrations to exceed the HC5 values ranged from 35% (acute effects) to 96% (chronic effects). Water quality criteria (WQC) for the protection of aquatic life were also frequently exceeded (by 48–87%) for both acute and chronic effects. Together with published threshold limit values from mesocosm studies, these data suggest that macroinvertebrate communities can be severely affected by the reported environmental concentrations of chlorpyrifos. Indeed, changes in the macroinvertebrate assemblage in the Pampa Húmeda have been correlated with chlorpyrifos levels in sediments. Nevertheless, the actual impact needs to be ascertained by assessing the recovery rate of macroinvertebrate populations in this region. Considering the HC5 for chronic effects and the threshold limits for macroinvertebrate community level effects, we propose 0.7 ng/L as a new WQC to effectively protect aquatic life from long-term exposure to chlorpyrifos. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:1748–1755. © 2019 SETAC. Abstract The joint probability graph summarizes the probabilities that the environmental chlorpyrifos concentrations found at the Pampa Húmeda in Argentina (blue circles) will exceed certain protection limit endpoints. The protection endpoints shown are: the acute and chronic hazardous concentration for 5% of the species (HC5) derived from the respective species sensitivity distributions (SSDs; red arrows); the water quality criteria (WQC) for Aquatic Life Protection from Canada (A, short term; B, long term) and Argentina (C; purple arrows); and the threshold concentration for chlorpyrifos effects on the benthic macroinvertebrate community (TC; green arrow). The risks of chlorpyrifos use in the Pampa Húmeda are very high, and an impact on aquatic biota is suspected from the effects observed on macroinvertebrate assemblages. In consideration of the lowest limit endpoint, a WQC of 0.7 ng/L for chlorpyrifos is proposed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".