Placebo Effects in Clinical Trials Evaluating Patients with Uncontrolled Persistent Asthma
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Rationale Patients with uncontrolled, persistent asthma can show substantial health improvements when administered placebo. Objectives We analyzed five randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials that assessed subjects with uncontrolled, persistent asthma to determine the magnitudes of placebo effects across different clinical outcomes. Methods Placebo effects for objective asthma-related outcomes, healthcare utilization outcomes, and patient-reported outcomes were estimated, with adjustments for regression to the mean. Results Statistically significant improvements in all clinical outcomes were seen in patients randomized to placebo across all trials. Placebo effects were largest for healthcare utilization outcomes, including exacerbations (median reduction, 0.44 events/yr; 31% risk reduction; range, 19–56%), emergency department visits (median reduction, 0.19 events/yr; 50% risk reduction; range, 36–82%), and hospitalizations for asthma (median reduction, 0.26 events/yr; 66% risk reduction; range, 61–74%). Patient-reported outcomes exhibited intermediate placebo effects. Median improvements in the Asthma Control Questionnaire and St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire scores in placebo-treated patients were 0.53 units (25% improvement; range, 18–30%) and 8.3 units (19.5% improvement; range 19–20%), respectively. Forced expiratory volume in 1 second exhibited the smallest relative placebo effects (median increase, 77 ml; 4.2% improvement; range, 3.4–4.9%). Subgroup analyses did not reveal patient subgroups that were more susceptible to placebo effects. Pre- and postrandomization counts for asthma exacerbations showed patterns consistent with the expected negative binomial distribution except for significant departures in prerandomization exacerbations for two trials. Conclusions Patients with uncontrolled asthma derived consistent benefit from randomization to placebo. Observed placebo effects may represent beneficial effects of both sham therapy and a structured asthma regimen dictated by the study protocol. In the case of healthcare utilization outcomes, recall errors in self-reported healthcare events may have introduced biases that inflated placebo effect estimates.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.026 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".