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Record W2944374104 · doi:10.1101/631937

Dispersal of <i>Mycobacterium tuberculosis</i> to indigenous populations driven by historical European trade in the South Pacific

2019· preprint· en· W2944374104 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Claire V. Mulholland, Abigail C. Shockey, Htin Aung, Ray Cursons, Ronan O’Toole, Sanjay Gautam, Daniela Brites, Sébastien Gagneux, Sally Roberts, Noel Karalus, Gregory M. Cook, Caitlin S. Pepperell, Vickery L. Arcus

Bibliographic record

VenuebioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 2019
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicTuberculosis Research and Epidemiology
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersInstitute of Environmental Science and Research
KeywordsBiological dispersalViral phylodynamicsTuberculosisIndigenousCladeMycobacterium tuberculosis complexMycobacterium tuberculosisLineage (genetic)GeographyBiologyEvolutionary biologyPopulationEcologyDemographyPhylogeneticsGeneticsSociologyMedicine

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract The Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex lineage 4 (L4), also known as the “Euro-American” lineage, is the most widely dispersed of the seven human adapted lineages. L4 is comprised of ten sublineages including L4.4, which has a moderate global distribution and is the most common L4 sublineage in New Zealand. We have used a phylodynamics approach and a dataset of 236 global M. tuberculosis genomes to trace the origins and dispersal of L4.4 strains in New Zealand that are predominantly found in Māori and Pacific people. We identify an L4.4.1.1 sublineage clade of European origin, likely French, that is prevalent in indigenous populations in both New Zealand and Canada. Molecular dating suggests that expansion of European trade networks in the early 19th century led to dispersal of this clade to the South Pacific. We also identify historical and social factors within the region that have contributed to the local spread and expansion of these strains, including recent Pacific migrations to New Zealand and the rapid urbanization of Māori in the 20th century. Our results offer new insight into the dispersal of M. tuberculosis in the South Pacific region and provide a striking example of the role of historical European migrations in the dispersal of M. tuberculosis . Author Summary Tuberculosis kills more people worldwide than any other infectious disease and indigenous populations are disproportionately affected by the disease. Here, we have used a large global dataset of Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacterial genomes to trace the historical origins of tuberculosis strains in New Zealand that are most frequently found in Māori and Pacific people. These strains are locally known as the ‘Rangipo’ and ‘Otara’ strains (both Māori place names) and belong to the “Euro-American” lineage of M. tuberculosis . Via genome analysis, we find that these strains are closely related to M. tuberculosis strains found in indigenous populations in Canada that have a European origin. We used a molecular dating approach (a molecular clock) to infer the ages of these strains and date divergence events. The timing we infer corresponds to the introduction of these strains to Polynesia via expanding European trade networks in the South Pacific in the early 19th century and suggests that the Otara strain has migrated to New Zealand from the Pacific Islands multiple times. Our results provide insight into human social phenomena underlying the expansion and dispersal of M. tuberculosis and reassert the important role of European colonial migrations in the global dispersal of the M. tuberculosis Euro-American lineage. This work also highlights the pejorative and stigmatizing mislabelling of the New Zealand strains with indigenous Māori place names, suggesting that these strains should be renamed.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.082
Threshold uncertainty score0.163

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.002
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.025
GPT teacher head0.260
Teacher spread0.234 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2019
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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