Dispersal of <i>Mycobacterium tuberculosis</i> to indigenous populations driven by historical European trade in the South Pacific
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex lineage 4 (L4), also known as the “Euro-American” lineage, is the most widely dispersed of the seven human adapted lineages. L4 is comprised of ten sublineages including L4.4, which has a moderate global distribution and is the most common L4 sublineage in New Zealand. We have used a phylodynamics approach and a dataset of 236 global M. tuberculosis genomes to trace the origins and dispersal of L4.4 strains in New Zealand that are predominantly found in Māori and Pacific people. We identify an L4.4.1.1 sublineage clade of European origin, likely French, that is prevalent in indigenous populations in both New Zealand and Canada. Molecular dating suggests that expansion of European trade networks in the early 19th century led to dispersal of this clade to the South Pacific. We also identify historical and social factors within the region that have contributed to the local spread and expansion of these strains, including recent Pacific migrations to New Zealand and the rapid urbanization of Māori in the 20th century. Our results offer new insight into the dispersal of M. tuberculosis in the South Pacific region and provide a striking example of the role of historical European migrations in the dispersal of M. tuberculosis . Author Summary Tuberculosis kills more people worldwide than any other infectious disease and indigenous populations are disproportionately affected by the disease. Here, we have used a large global dataset of Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacterial genomes to trace the historical origins of tuberculosis strains in New Zealand that are most frequently found in Māori and Pacific people. These strains are locally known as the ‘Rangipo’ and ‘Otara’ strains (both Māori place names) and belong to the “Euro-American” lineage of M. tuberculosis . Via genome analysis, we find that these strains are closely related to M. tuberculosis strains found in indigenous populations in Canada that have a European origin. We used a molecular dating approach (a molecular clock) to infer the ages of these strains and date divergence events. The timing we infer corresponds to the introduction of these strains to Polynesia via expanding European trade networks in the South Pacific in the early 19th century and suggests that the Otara strain has migrated to New Zealand from the Pacific Islands multiple times. Our results provide insight into human social phenomena underlying the expansion and dispersal of M. tuberculosis and reassert the important role of European colonial migrations in the global dispersal of the M. tuberculosis Euro-American lineage. This work also highlights the pejorative and stigmatizing mislabelling of the New Zealand strains with indigenous Māori place names, suggesting that these strains should be renamed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".