Changes in Occupancy and Relative Abundance of a Southern Population of Spruce Grouse Based on a 25-year Resurvey
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Marginal populations are often distributed throughout fragmented landscapes and experience less optimum conditions compared to central range populations. Falcipennis canadensis (Spruce Grouse) inhabit conifer-dominated forests distributed throughout the northern US and Canada, and reach their southeastern range extent in the northeastern US, including Maine. We resurveyed 18 forest stands on Mount Desert Island, ME, that were comprised of Picea mariana (Black Spruce) and Larix laricina (Tamarack) and which were originally surveyed during 1992–1993. Our goal was to observe changes in Spruce Grouse occupancy and abundance between the 1990s and the present (2017). We conducted repeated callback surveys to detect territorial male Spruce Grouse within each stand during spring 2017, using a systematic survey design that covered the entirety of each stand and replicated methods used during the 1990s. We documented 7 individual Spruce Grouse, including 6 males and a single female. Single-season occupancy models for 2017 predicted Spruce Grouse stand occupancy of 0.226 (±0.100 SE), with a survey-level detection probability for male Spruce Grouse of 0.857 (±0.141 SE). Stand occupancy decreased from 8 stands in 1992–1993 to 4 in 2017, a 50% decline in the proportion of stands occupied. Further, the total number of males observed decreased from 32 (average between 1992 and 1993) to only 6 during our study, a >80% decline in apparent abundance. Our results suggest Spruce Grouse populations on Mount Desert Island have decreased and may be at risk of local extinction.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".