The agro-enabled urban revolution, pesticides, politics, and popular culture: a case study of land use, birds, and insecticides in the USA
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Urbanization is an inevitable process in human civilization. When populations expand, socio-economic and political dynamics typically shift from agricultural predominance to one of industry and services. Accordingly, agrarian societies transform from diffuse rural communities to dense urban centers. By 2050, the world's population is projected to reach 9.1 billion, with the urban population growing from 50 to 70%. Inevitably, this ever-expanding urban frontier encroaches along the human-ecological interface, creating a challenge for conservation and biodiversity. For the past 30 years, agricultural cropland area in the USA has remained fairly constant, despite significant population growth over the same time period. Thus, agricultural production in America has more than kept pace with rapid population growth and global export demand without increasing the farmland footprint at the expense of wildlife habitat. This is primarily due to considerable advances made in pesticide development, safety, and regulation, coupled with soil conservation and genetically modified crops. Still, the potential contribution of agriculture to ecosystem impairment remains contentious, particularly with regard to current use of pesticides. Recently, significant focus has been placed on the state of bird populations in the USA. Many species are considered imperiled, and this is often attributed in the popular media to pesticide use. However, focusing solely on the agricultural/chemical story as a significant driver of species viability and ecological risk within the broader biodiversity and conservation narrative lacks context and perspective. Moreover, the hypothesis that pesticides are indirectly affecting bird population status via reductions in food resources should be considered with caution and within the context of other likely causes. This work explores the dynamics between historical land use, human-controlled activity, and bird population trends from a holistic perspective within the USA. The aim is to provide context, developed from a relative comparison of potential contributing factors, in order to help inform discussion and foster dialogue between industry, academia, government, non-governmental organizations, and the public.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".