Rapid initialization of retrogressive thaw slumps in the Canadian high Arctic and their response to climate and terrain factors
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract An increase in retrogressive thaw slump (RTS) activity has been observed in the Arctic in recent decades. However, a gap exists between observations in high Arctic polar desert regions where mean annual ground temperatures are as cold as −16.5 °C and vegetation coverage is sparse. In this study, we present a ∼30 year record of annual RTS observations (frequency and distribution) from 1989 to 2018 within the Eureka Sound Lowlands, Ellesmere and Axel Heiberg Islands. Record summer warmth in 2011 and 2012 promoted rapid RTS initialization, increasing active slumps from 100 in a given year or less to over 200 regionally and promoting RTS initiation in previously unaffected terrain. Differential GPS and remote sensing observations of 12 RTSs initiated during this period (2011–2018) provided a mean headwall retreat rate for all RTSs of 6.2 m yr −1 and for specific RTSs up to 26.7 m yr −1 . To better understand the dynamics of climate and terrain factors controlling RTS headwall retreat rates we explored RTS interactions by correlating headwall retreat with climate factors (thawing degree days, annual rainfall and annual snowfall) and terrain factors (aspect and slope). Our findings indicate a sensitivity of cold permafrost in the high Arctic to climate-driven thermokarst initiation, but the decoupling of RTS dynamics from climate appears to occur over time for individual RTS as terrain factors take on a greater role controlling headwall retreat. Detailed observations of thermokarst development in a high Arctic polar desert permafrost setting are important as it demonstrates the sensitivity of this system to changes in summer temperatures and highlight differences to changes occurring in other Arctic permafrost regions.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it