Circumventing kinetics in biogeochemical modeling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Microbial metabolism drives biogeochemical fluxes in virtually every ecosystem. Modeling these fluxes is challenged by the incredible diversity of microorganisms, whose kinetic parameters are largely unknown. In poorly mixed systems, such as stagnant water columns or sediments, however, long-term bulk microbial metabolism may become limited by physical transport rates of substrates across space. Here we mathematically show that under these conditions, biogeochemical fluxes are largely predictable based on the system's transport properties, chemical boundary conditions, and the stoichiometry of metabolic pathways, regardless of the precise kinetics of the resident microorganisms. We formalize these considerations into a predictive modeling framework and demonstrate its use for the Cariaco Basin subeuphotic zone, one of the largest anoxic marine basins worldwide. Using chemical concentration data solely from the upper boundary (depth 180 m) and lower boundary (depth 900 m), but without a priori knowledge of metabolite fluxes, chemical depth profiles, kinetic parameters, or microbial species composition, we predict the concentrations and vertical fluxes of biologically important substances, including oxygen, nitrate, hydrogen sulfide, and ammonium, across the entire considered depth range (180-900 m). Our predictions largely agree with concentration measurements over a period of 14 years ([Formula: see text] = 0.78-0.92) and become particularly accurate during a period where the system was near biogeochemical steady state (years 2007-2009, [Formula: see text] = 0.86-0.95). Our work enables geobiological predictions for a large class of ecosystems without knowledge of kinetic parameters or geochemical depth profiles. Conceptually, our work provides a possible explanation for the decoupling between microbial species composition and bulk metabolic function, observed in various ecosystems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".