Tumor subtype and other prognostic factors in breast cancer patients with brain metastases: The updated graded prognostic assessment (Breast-GPA).
Bibliographic record
Abstract
1079 Background: Brain metastases (BM) are a common and fatal complication of breast cancer but survival varies widely based on various prognostic factors (PF). Hence, patient counseling and therapeutic decisions should be individualized. We previously published a prognostic index (Breast GPA) based on cohort A (1985-2007, n = 642), updated it with tumor subtype in cohort B (1993-2010, n = 400) and are now updating it with a larger contemporary cohort (C). Methods: A multi-institutional (19) multi-national (3) retrospective database of 2473 breast cancer patients with BM diagnosed from 1/1/2006-12/31/2017 was created and compared to our prior cohorts. Demographic, clinical, molecular factors, tumor subtype and treatment were correlated with survival. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were calculated and compared with log-rank tests. Results: The median survival (MS) for cohorts A, B and C improved over time [12, 14 and 16 mo, respectively ( < 0.01)] despite the subtype distribution becoming less favorable: Luminal B (ER/PR/HER2+) decreased from 26% to 21%; HER2 (HER2+/ER/PR-) decreased from 31% to 17%, Luminal A (ER/PR+/HER2-) increased from 20% to 31%; Basal (ER/PR/HER2-) was unchanged at 24%.MS by subtype improved from 21 to 27 mo in Luminal B, 18 to 25 mo in HER2, 10 to 14 mo in Luminal A and 6 to 9 mo in Basal tumors. The number of BM was 1 in 35%, ≤4 in 67% and > 10 in 18%. PF significant for survival were tumor subtype, age, KPS, number of BM and extracranial metastases (ECM) (all < 0.01). Surprisingly, Hispanic women (7%) showed improved survival (p < 0.01). BRCA1 was mutated in 57/533 (11%) and those patients showed a trend (0.16) toward improved survival. Treatment patterns have changed: the use of whole brain radiation therapy decreased from 71% to 67% to 47% in cohorts A, B and C, respectively. Conclusions: Despite the shift to less favorable tumor subtypes, MS has improvedbut varies widely by diagnosis-specific PF. Compared to prior cohorts, number of BM and ECM were identified as new PF. Ethnic, genetic and treatment differences between the eras are apparent. The updated Breast GPA, based on these data, and the correlation between BRCA1 and tumor subtype will be presented.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".