A long-term look at “early starters”: Predicting adult psychosocial outcomes from childhood conduct problem trajectories
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Current evidence suggests that multiple pathways of "early-starting" conduct problems exist, including persisting and declining trajectories. Since relatively little is known about the early onset-declining pathway, this study examined the long-term outcomes of different childhood conduct problem trajectories in a disproportionately high-risk sample (N = 754). Parents reported on children's conduct problems at six time points (kindergarten to grade 7). At age 25, psychosocial outcomes were assessed across five domains (psychopathology, substance use, risky sexual behavior, antisocial behavior, and adaptive outcomes). Four childhood conduct problem trajectories were identified: extremely high increasing (EHI; 3.7%), high stable (HS; 22.0%), moderate decreasing (MD; 38.8%), and low decreasing (LD; 35.5%). The EHI and HS groups displayed the poorest psychosocial functioning at age 25, whereas the LD group exhibited the most positive adjustment. Although individuals in the MD group displayed relatively positive adjustment on some outcomes, they displayed more psychopathology and lower well-being in adulthood than the LD group. These findings suggest that there are diverse pathways of early-starting conduct problems, and that all early starters are at risk for later maladjustment. However, the degree and type of risk is related to the severity of conduct problems throughout childhood.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".