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Record W2949739188 · doi:10.1111/psyp.12616

Combating the scientific decline effect with confidence (intervals)

2016· article· en· W2949739188 on OpenAlexaff
David M. Groppe

Bibliographic record

VenuePsychophysiology · 2016
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicMeta-analysis and systematic reviews
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Toronto
Fundersnot available
KeywordsReplicateFrequentist inferencePsychologyConfidence intervalStatisticsValue (mathematics)EconometricsStatistical powerCognitive psychologyBayesian probabilityMathematicsBayesian inference

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

A symptom of the need for greater reproducibility in scientific practice is the decline effect-the fact that the size of many experimental effects decline with subsequent study or fail to replicate entirely. A simple way to combat this problem is for scientists to more routinely use confidence intervals (CIs) in their work. CIs provide frequentist bounds on the true size of an effect and can reveal when a statistically significant effect is possibly too small to be reliable or when a large effect might have been missed due to insufficient statistical power. CIs are often lacking in psychophysiological reports, likely due to the large number of dependent variables, which complicates deriving and visualizing CIs. In this article, I explain the value of CIs and show how to compute them for analyses involving multiple variables in various ways that adjust the intervals for the greater uncertainty induced by multiple statistical comparisons. The methods are illustrated using a basic visual oddball ERP dataset and freely available MATLAB software.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.066
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.017
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesMetaresearch, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.381
Threshold uncertainty score0.995

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0660.017
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0020.001
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0030.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0060.010

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.551
GPT teacher head0.524
Teacher spread0.027 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.

Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations23
Published2016
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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