Evaluation of Commercial Circulating Tumor DNA Test in Metastatic Prostate Cancer
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) sequencing provides a minimally invasive method for tumor molecular stratification. Commercial ctDNA sequencing is increasingly used in the clinic, but its accuracy in metastatic prostate cancer is untested. We compared the commercial Guardant360 ctDNA test against an academic sequencing approach for profiling metastatic prostate cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS Plasma cell-free DNA was collected between September 2016 and April 2018 from 24 patients with clinically progressive metastatic prostate cancer representing a range of clinical scenarios. Each sample was analyzed using Guardant360 and a research panel encompassing 73 prostate cancer genes. Concordance of somatic mutation and copy number calls was evaluated between the two approaches. RESULTS Targeted sequencing independently confirmed 94% of somatic mutations identified by Guardant360 at an allele fraction greater than 1%. AR amplifications and mutations were detected with high concordance in 14 patients, with only three discordant subclonal mutations at an allele fraction lower than 0.5%. Many somatic mutations identified by Guardant360 at an allele fraction lower than 1% seemed to represent subclonal passenger events or non–prostate-derived clones. Most of the non- AR gene amplifications reported by Guardant360 represented single copy gains. The research approach detected several clinically relevant DNA repair gene alterations not reported by Guardant360, including four germline truncating BRCA2/ ATM mutations, two somatic ATM stop gain mutations, one BRCA2 biallelic deletion, 11 BRCA2 stop gain reversal mutations in a patient treated with olaparib, and a hypermutator phenotype in a patient sample with 42 mutations per megabase. CONCLUSION Guardant360 accurately identifies somatic ctDNA mutations in patients with metastatic prostate cancer, but low allele frequency mutations should be interpreted with caution. Test utility in metastatic prostate cancer is currently limited by the lack of reporting on actionable deletions, rearrangements, and germline mutations.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it